What is weighted pipeline?
Weighted pipeline is pipeline value multiplied by a probability for each deal or stage: a rough expected value of what is open. A $100,000 deal at a 40% stage probability counts as $40,000. CRM systems have long built this in. Oracle's Siebel documentation describes expected value as revenue multiplied by a probability that adjusts with the sales stage.
Why it matters to a revenue leader
Weighted pipeline is useful in aggregate and misleading deal by deal. Across hundreds of small service jobs, it can predict the total well. On a few large deals, every outcome is all or nothing, and the weighted figure will be wrong for each one. Probabilities work best in aggregate, applied by sales operations and kept apart from the seller's own forecast categories. Use weighted pipeline to size the pipeline, then forecast the big deals one by one.
How to calculate it
Weighted pipeline = sum of (deal value × probability) across open deals. Probabilities should come from your own historical stage-to-close conversion.
Common mistake: using default CRM probabilities that were never checked against your results.
Example
Fictitious numbersA utility services company has three open deals: $50,000 at 80%, $200,000 at 25% and $120,000 at 50%. Weighted pipeline is $40,000 + $50,000 + $60,000 = $150,000. The large deal will close at $200,000 or at zero, so the leader forecasts it separately.
"When did we last check our stage probabilities against how our deals closed?"
Sources
- Siebel Bookshelf v7.5: Creating an Opportunity checked 9 Oct 2026