Sales forecast

A prediction of what will close in a period, built from deal-by-deal judgment and pipeline math.

Checked 9 Oct 2026 · 2 sources

What is a sales forecast?

A sales forecast is a prediction of what will close in a period, built from deal-by-deal judgment and pipeline math. IBM describes the common methods as historical, pipeline-based, intuitive and AI-driven, and most teams blend them. The forecast usually rolls up from sellers to managers to the revenue leader, sorted into categories such as commit and best case.

Why it matters to a revenue leader

The forecast is the revenue leader's promise to the CEO and the board, and in a PE-backed company to the sponsor and its lenders. Each miss costs credibility that takes quarters to rebuild. Forrester argues that forecasts built on opinion are prone to bias, and that data on how deals actually progress improves accuracy. The leader owns the number, so the leader also owns the method behind it.

Example

Fictitious numbers

A facility services company enters Q4 with a commit of $3.1M and a best case of $3.8M. The leader checks the commit against history: over the last four quarters, the team closed between 88% and 97% of commit. The leader submits $2.9M to the sponsor and names the two deals that would move it higher.

The question to ask

"Which deals in our commit would surprise us if they closed, and which would surprise us if they did not?"

Sources

  1. What is Sales Forecasting? | IBM checked 9 Oct 2026
  2. Careful With That Axe, Sales Team: AI And The Future Of Forecasting (Forrester, 16 Mar 2021) checked 17 Oct 2026

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