What is a renewal forecast?
A renewal forecast is a prediction of which agreements will renew in a period and at what value. It starts from a known base, the agreements whose terms end in the period, and estimates how much will renew, shrink, grow or be lost. Some teams forecast each renewal as a range: GitLab's public handbook records a worst case and a best case if the team acts on the risk.
Why it matters to a revenue leader
Renewals are the most forecastable revenue a leader has, because the dates and amounts are written into contracts. That makes a renewal miss harder to explain to a CFO or a sponsor than a missed new deal. In a services company, the renewal forecast also predicts next year's repair and project work, since that work flows from active agreements. Many teams forecast new business deal by deal and renewals with a single average rate, which is where surprises come from.
How to calculate it
Forecast renewal rate equals the value expected to renew divided by the value up for renewal in the period.
Common mistake: applying last year's average rate to the whole base, when the largest agreements deserve a judgment of their own.
Example
Fictitious numbersA testing company has $2.4 million in agreements up for renewal next quarter. Account owners expect $2.1 million to renew at current value, and see another $150,000 at risk that could be saved with action. The forecast range is 87.5% to 93.75%, and the CRO commits the low end to the CFO while the team works the gap.
"What value is up for renewal next quarter, and how much of it would you put in your commit?"
Sources
- Renewals Managers - What we do (The GitLab Handbook) checked 9 Oct 2026