Is this rep ready for promotion to manager?

Why is promoting a rep to manager a bet on the whole team?

A promotion to manager is a bet on a whole team. The person you choose shapes how every seller under them works, and whether the good ones stay.

Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue drew on records from a sales performance software provider covering 38,843 sellers at 131 US firms between 2005 and 2011 (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2019). They estimated that a promotion policy aimed only at picking good managers would have raised average manager quality by 30%, measured by each manager's effect on their sellers' sales. The authors caution against reading this as a mistake. Firms may accept the cost because promoting strong sellers rewards effort and keeps promotions feeling fair.

The stakes reach past sales. Using personnel data from one large technology firm, Hoffman and Tadelis estimated that going from a manager at the 10th percentile of people management skills to one at the 90th, as rated in employee surveys, predicted about 60% lower turnover.

30%

higher average manager quality estimated if promotions aimed only at picking good managers.

Benson, Li and Shue, QJE 2019 · 131 US firms

What questions show whether a rep is ready to manage?

Five questions, and one that sits under all of them.

Who do other sellers already go to for help, and why?

A manager's results come through other people, and the habit of helping usually shows up before the title does. Benson, Li and Shue counted how many colleagues each seller shared credit with on sales. Sellers with more of that shared work went on to lift their teams more once promoted. The authors could not say why, and warn that sellers might pad deals with extra names if firms rewarded it. Ask your sellers who they turn to when a bid or renewal stalls, and what that person does. Listen for help that teaches. A seller who solves the problem by taking over the customer conversation builds dependence. A seller who asks what was tried and talks through the next move builds other sellers.
Can this person explain why a deal was won or lost, beyond their own effort?

Many top sellers win on talent and hours, and neither one hands down to a team. A manager has to see why something worked clearly enough to teach it to someone who sells another way. Linda Hill of Harvard Business School, citing studies of high-potential managers, notes that one mark of those who derail is leaning on the strengths that first set them apart, such as a hands-on style or deep technical skill, after the job has moved past them. Ask the candidate about a recent win and a recent loss. Listen for the buyer's reasons and the moments where the deal turned. If every explanation comes back to how hard they worked, the only coaching they can give is to work harder.
Why do they want the job?

The reason shapes how they will spend their time in the job. In a 2001 study in the Journal of Applied Psychology, Kim-Yin Chan and Fritz Drasgow found that a person's motivation to lead predicted behavioral measures of leadership potential beyond what tests of ability and personality predicted. Its samples were military recruits and students in Singapore and the US, a long way from a sales floor. Hill also observes that people early in their careers are easily drawn to a job by its pay or prestige. Listen for whether the candidate talks about other people's results. Where management is the only route to higher pay or a bigger title, expect some candidates to want the route more than the work.
What have we let them try, such as onboarding a new seller or leading a project?

A trial shows how someone works through other people while the decision is still easy to change. In a 2009 study of 60 managers across 225 on-the-job experiences, D. Scott DeRue and Ned Wellman found that more challenging experiences built more leadership skill, though the gains shrank as the challenge rose. Access to feedback offset those diminishing returns. A stretch with someone watching and talking it through teaches the candidate more and shows you more. Listen for what the new seller they onboarded can now do alone, and for what the candidate changed after feedback. The leadership transition starts here, well before the title.
What happens to their accounts and our number if they move?

Relationships a strong seller has built do not move by memo. Robert Palmatier, Lisa Scheer and Jan-Benedict Steenkamp studied 362 business buyers and their salespeople in a 2007 paper. Only the loyalty a customer felt toward the salesperson had a direct effect on the selling firm's sales growth, and that same loyalty put business at risk if the salesperson left. They studied salespeople leaving for a competitor, and a promotion takes the same person away from the customer. Benson, Li and Shue add that managers who had been top sellers showed no sign of making up the gap through their own selling. Listen for who will own each large agreement, and for a plan for the number while the new manager learns the job. Succession planning for the seat they leave matters as much as for the seat they take.

The question under all five

"What have I seen this person do for someone else's results?"

A front-line manager is judged on other people's results, so this is the question the others build toward. They gather evidence from peers and from what the candidate has tried. This one asks you to name what that evidence shows. If you have seen nothing yet, give them room to show it before the title changes.

What are the signs a rep is ready, or not, for promotion?

Good signs

Peers name this person when asked who helps them, and describe being taught.
They explain a lost deal in terms of the buyer and the decision.
They talk about the team's results when they explain why they want the job.
A seller they onboarded now works without them.
Their largest customers already know a second person at your company.

Warning signs

The case for promoting them would read the same for a senior selling role.
Peers say this person takes over the deal when asked for help.
They describe the job as the next title or the way to earn more.
Nobody has watched them lead anything.
The plan assumes they will keep their best accounts and manage the team too.

Case study Fictitious numbers

A sponsor-owned commercial fire protection company needs a front-line manager for a team of 12 sellers who renew inspection agreements and bid on repair work. Two sellers want the job. One has led the team in new bookings for two years running. The other sits in the middle of the pack.

The VP Sales asks each of the other 10 sellers who they go to when a bid or a renewal stalls. Six name the mid-pack seller. Three name the top seller. One names a teammate who is not a candidate.

The reasons matter more than the counts. Sellers say the top seller fixes the problem, often by taking over the customer conversation. They say the mid-pack seller asks what they have tried and helps them plan the next step.

Sellers asked

everyone but the two candidates

Go to the top seller

who often takes over the conversation

Go to the mid-pack seller

who asks what they have tried

Who sellers go to when a bid or a renewal stalls

Mid-packMid-packMid-packMid-packMid-packMid-packTopTopTopOther

Mid-pack seller (6)
Top seller (3)
Another teammate (1)

What the VP learned about each

The top seller

Fixes the problem, sellers say
Often by taking over the customer conversation
Wants the job mostly for the pay

The mid-pack seller

Asks what they have tried, sellers say
Helps them plan the next step
Onboards the next new hire while the VP watches

The mid-pack seller then onboards the next new hire, and the VP watches and reviews it with them afterward. The VP also maps who would own the mid-pack seller's agreements if the move goes ahead.

The top seller's renewal book is the largest on the team. When the VP asks why they want the job, the answer is mostly about pay. That opens a separate conversation about a senior selling path.

FAQ

Should you promote your best salesperson to sales manager?

Only with evidence beyond the sales record. Your top seller may also be the one peers go to for help and the one who can explain why deals turn. Promote on that. If the case rests on bookings alone, give them part of the role to try first and watch what happens to someone else's results.

What is the difference between a great salesperson and a great sales manager?

A great salesperson wins deals. A great sales manager wins through sellers who each sell differently, so the job turns on seeing what works and helping others do it. The two share knowledge of customers and offers. They differ in where the results come from. A sales manager is judged on the team's number and on whether good sellers stay and grow.

How do you keep a top seller who is not ready to manage?

Start with why they want the job. If the answer is pay or status, a senior selling role with larger accounts may meet it. If the answer is developing people, give them part of the role with feedback, such as onboarding a new hire. In Benson, Li and Shue's data, firms that paid strongly for sales results put less weight on sales when choosing managers, which suggests pay can carry some of the reward a promotion would.

Should you hire a sales manager from outside instead?

Sometimes. An outside hire widens the field and can bring management experience your team lacks. An inside promotion brings knowledge of your customers and offers, and it shows sellers that strong work leads somewhere. Either way, ask for evidence of what the candidate has done for other people's results.

Is this rep ready for promotion to manager?

Why is promoting a rep to manager a bet on the whole team?

What questions show whether a rep is ready to manage?

Who do other sellers already go to for help, and why?

Can this person explain why a deal was won or lost, beyond their own effort?

Why do they want the job?

What have we let them try, such as onboarding a new seller or leading a project?

What happens to their accounts and our number if they move?